Acta Oeconomica 13. (1974)
1974 / 3-4. szám - Lengyel László: Prognosis of Public Social Expenses for 1980
Ada Oeconomica Vol. 13 (3—4), pp. 363— 382 (1974) L. Lengyel PROGNOSIS OF PUBLIC SOCIAL EXPENSES FOR 1980 Computations made with well known forecasting methods indicate that the total sum of public social expenses will about double by 1980. The author also tries to give a description of those processes emerging from the side of social demands, of almost objective nature, which make probable the above mentioned order of magnitude. A relatively detailed picture is given on the national economic background of the forecast and its socio-economic consequences, then the main conclusions are formulated, which must be necessarily taken into consideration in the phase of decision preparation (planning). The study also comprises a prognostication of the income pattern of the population at the turn of the millenium. Introduction and methodology Character of the forecast When preparing the study in 1973 it was not yet possible to undertake the task of making planning calculations concerning the development of public social expenses* during the Fifth Five-Year Plan-period (1976-1980), more precisely in its last year, 1980. Namely, several conditions were missing. True, the system of the targets of our comprehensive political and fundamental socio-political strategy is well-known. It is also true that within the former the principal perspectives of the labour and living standards policies were quantified in the course of long-term planning, too, though mostly in a form of formulating the requirements without proper information available on whether the requirements can be met. Nevertheless, the conditions were missing in three respects: a) On the side of the social requirements acknowledged as real. With the public social expenses an extremely powerful automatism is at work while, at the same time, by the very nature of things there was no comprehensive or definitive decision yet, on the development measures to be implemented in the remaining years of the Fourth Five-Year Plan-period (1971-75). In connection with the Fifth Five-Year Planperiod the tasks facing us were to outline the development conceptions of the field, to formulate the conceptions related to the infrastructure, to explore the problems of the labour background and, last but not least, to elaborate the measures to be taken regarding wages, living standards and social policy (within this, the further steps to be taken in demographic policy enjoy high priority). * The notion of “public social expenses” as applied in the present study includes the current expenditures, operating costs of the health, welfare, educational, cultural, economic, legal and public security as well as of the administrative branches of the state budget. It does not include either the data of investments or those of renovations, in spite of the fact that in this field their decisive majority appears as direct liabilities of the state budget, the centralized funds. Acta Oeconomica 13,1974