Acta Oeconomica 22. (1979)
1979 / 1-2. szám - BOOK REVIEWS - Korán, I.: Economic Forecasting. - Besenyei, L. - Gidai, E. - Nováky, E.: Futures Research and Forecasting in Practice - Borli K. - Sipos B.: Forecasting for Industrial Enterprises with Methods of Mathematical Statistics (Schmidt, Á.)
174 BOOK REVIEWS becoming more and more monumental. On the other hand the more monumental it is, the less it has to say.” (p. 201) The author subjects two basic assumptions of the indifference theory to his criticism: 1. maximization of total consumer utility in the framework of purchasing power, and 2. the idea of general substitutability. The author proves that consumer utility is a vector quantity and therefore the notion of ’smaller than’, ’more than’ or ’equal to’ concerning the relations between two utilities cannot always be interpreted. Therefore the indifference theory is strongly contestable already from the mathematical point of view, and its inconsistencies are still greater with respect to the social aspect. There exist consumers’ preferences but they are socially determined and by no means independent from income and price conditions. Besides, the author notes, it is rather doubtful whether the individual preferences assert themselves in purchases. It is at least as justified to speak about family preferences, moreover, the members of society also influence each others’ needs. The author interprets the consumer’s preference scale which he feels to be realistic not irrespectively of prices but on the price plane and substitutes the state of equilibrium for maximization of utility. In his opinion those points of consumption (combinations of goods) are indifferent which the consumer feels proportional and balanced under the given price and income conditions. It follows that with given prices and incomes the optimum is, from the consumer’s point of view, not a point denoting a combination of goods but a vaguely outlined patch denoting a set of combinations of goods. The interpretation of consumer preference determines the interpretation of substitutability too. Since the preference scale depends on relative prices, substitution is determined again by relative prices, that is, the proportions of substitution are directly identical with the relative price proportions. However, substitutability is not general at all. The author thoroughly and painstakingly analyses the nature of needs and their substitutive and complementary nature, and proves the limited validity of substitutability. As a very plastic illustration he contrasts food with industrial products. Three circumstances contributed to the author’s thorough critique of the indifference theory, namely, his deep knowledge of the literature and his mastery of Marxist theory and of planning practice. É. RADNÖTI KORÁN, I.: Gazdasági prognosztika (Economic forecasting.) Budapest, 1978. Tankönyvkiadó. 263 p. BESENYEI, L.-GIDAI, E.-NOVÁKY, E.: Jövőkutatás, előrejelzés a gyakorlatban. Módszertani kézikönyv (Futures research and forecasting in practice. A methodological handbook.) Budapest, 1977. Közgazdasági és Jogi Könyvkiadó. 290 p. BORLIK, К.-SIPOS, В.: Iparvállalati prognóziskészítés matematikai, statisztikai módszerekkel (Forecasting for industrial enterprises with methods of mathematical statistics.) Budapest, 1977. Közgazdasági és Jogi Könyvkiadó. 254 p. Futures research in Hungary — especially futurology, but forecasting as well - has caught up relatively late with the countries more developed in this field, only in the late 1960s. From the 1970s on an increasing number of studies, articles and publications dealing with or relating to the subject of forecasting has been published in journals and the publication of such books has begun as welL A significant part of these publications is aimed at laying the theoretical foundations of this science and practice, to a certain degree novel in Hungary, and at answering essential questions relating to the terminological, philosophical, ideological and planning aspects of this descipline. In this stage of development methodological, practical and educational works played an important role. The last two years saw the publication of books on forecasting in Hungary, which not only give a true picture of the well-known methods and concepts, but also provide information about the concrete practical application of the methods in Hungary and about their results as welL Imre Korán’s Economic forecasting is meant to be a matter of fact text-book but it intends not only to familiarize with and teach the forecasting methods. In the first part of the book entitled Principles a theoretical and didactic basis Acta Oeconomica 22, 1979